First, gay men born in intolerant states may move to tolerant states. There are two likely explanations for this. For example, according to a Gallup survey, the proportion of the population that is gay is almost twice as high in Rhode Island, the state with the highest support for gay marriage, than Mississippi, the state with the lowest support for gay marriage. Surveys tell us there are far more gay men in tolerant states than intolerant states. I think I can use big data to give a better answer to this question than we have ever had.įirst, more on that survey data. But sexual preference has long been among the subjects upon which people have tended to lie. Representative surveys now tell us about 2% to 3% are. Psychologists no longer believe Alfred Kinsey’s famous estimate – based on surveys that oversampled prisoners and prostitutes – that 10% of American men are gay. Yet it has been among the toughest questions for social scientists to answer. How many American men are gay? This is a regular question in sexuality research. I am now convinced that Google searches are the most important dataset ever collected on the human psyche. Not exactly small topics, and this dataset, which didn’t exist a couple of decades ago, offered surprising new perspectives on all of them. Mental illness, human sexuality, abortion, religion, health. I have spent the past four years analysing anonymous Google data. Google was invented so that people could learn about the world, not so researchers could learn about people, but it turns out the trails we leave as we seek knowledge on the internet are tremendously revealing. The power in Google data is that people tell the giant search engine things they might not tell anyone else. Remember the conditions that make people more honest. Certain online sources get people to admit things they would not admit anywhere else.
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How, therefore, can we learn what our fellow humans are really thinking and doing? Big data. People have no incentive to tell surveys the truth. However, on sensitive topics, every survey method will elicit substantial misreporting.
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People will admit more if they are alone than if others are in the room with them. For eliciting truthful answers, internet surveys are better than phone surveys, which are better than in-person surveys. The more impersonal the conditions, the more honest people will be. If you are deluding yourself, you can’t be honest in a survey. One-quarter of high school seniors think they are in the top 1% in their ability to get along with other people. More than 90% of college professors say they do above-average work. How big is this problem? More than 40% of one company’s engineers said they are in the top 5%. Lying to oneself may explain why so many people say they are above average. Then there’s that odd habit we sometimes have of lying to ourselves. And 44% said they had donated to the university in the past year.
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Fewer than 2% reported that they graduated with lower than a 2.5 GPA (grade point average). People consistently gave wrong information, in ways that made them look good. The answers were compared with official records. A recent survey asked University of Maryland graduates various questions about their college experience.
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But, while what’s embarrassing or desirable may have changed, people’s tendency to deceive pollsters remains strong. Has anything changed in 65 years? In the age of the internet, not owning a library card is no longer embarrassing. The word 'gay' is 10% more likely to complete searches that begin 'Is my husband.' than the word 'cheating'
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Even though nobody gave their names, people, in large numbers, exaggerated their voter registration status, voting behaviour, and charitable giving. What the residents reported to the surveys was very different from the data the researchers had gathered. They then surveyed the residents to see if the percentages would match. Researchers collected data, from official sources, on the residents of Denver: what percentage of them voted, gave to charity, and owned a library card. An important paper in 1950 provided powerful evidence of how surveys can fall victim to such bias. They want to look good, even though most surveys are anonymous. Many people underreport embarrassing behaviours and thoughts on surveys. Have you ever fantasised about killing someone?